Prediction of Martina Colmegna vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon at W15 Lima 13 Dec 2025

• Second serve effectiveness: In recent months, Lucciana Perez Alarcon has a slight edge, winning 36.31% of second serve points compared to Martina Colmegna's 33.24%.
• First and second serve return proficiency: Lucciana Perez Alarcon holds a narrow advantage by winning 49.28% of opponent's second serve points and 37.51% on first serve returns, compared to Martina Colmegna's 48.86% and 36.40% respectively.
• Pressure situations: Under pressure, Lucciana Perez Alarcon excels, saving 44.61% of breakpoints faced, surpassing Martina Colmegna's 40.25%.
• Match performance over the past year: Lucciana Perez Alarcon has demonstrated superior match-winning prowess, securing 72.73% (24/9) compared to Martina Colmegna's 60.00% (27/18).
• Preferred playing surface: Both players show their best performance on clay with identical career win rates, but Lucciana Perez Alarcon significantly outperforms Martina Colmegna on hard surfaces.
• Tournament level experience: The past year's results show Lucciana Perez Alarcon victorious in 70.00% of high-level tournament matches, contrasting Martina Colmegna's 52.00% success rate.
• Quality of opponents faced: There's a marginal difference with Lucciana Perez Alarcon's opponents averaging a rank of 370.73, compared to Martina Colmegna's 391.51.
• Decisive set ability: Martina Colmegna edges out in crucial deciding sets with a 56% win rate, whereas Lucciana Perez Alarcon has won 40% of such sets in the past 12 months.
• Break point opportunities: In turning break chances into games, Lucciana Perez Alarcon has a slight edge with a 40.65% conversion rate compared to Martina Colmegna's 37.61%.

Editorial Prediction (December 13, 2025, UTC):

This upcoming match between Martina Colmegna and Lucciana Perez Alarcon presents interesting dynamics. Martina Colmegna shows solid performance in deciding sets, making her a tough competitor in tightly contested matches.

Lucciana Perez Alarcon, however, appears to have a stronger overall form with advantages in second serve points, pressure handling, and play on hard surfaces. She has also achieved better performance metrics against tougher opponents in recent times.

With these factors considered, Lucciana Perez Alarcon is the likely winner of this matchup, given her consistent edge in pivotal stats and superior match-winning record over the past year.